Sunday, April 15, 2007

Big Moves Coming

The week ahead has lots of earnings reports that should give more overall guidance as to how earnings will play out this season.

If you are following RATE, you know I am about 20 cents from getting stopped out. I still believe that any day bad news will propel the stock straight down but it is running up a lot further than I expected. I really want to hold it for earnings which are May 1st. The stock filled the gap from back in November and has retraced through the 38% mark and the 50% retracement is 38.50. This is a lot higher than I want to hold on for. I might just have to get stopped out to limit those losses and short the stock before earnings or when it gets to 38.50. Options could be too expensive at that point.



CAL- everybody was short this one or had PUTs, but then it found a temporary bottom and the overall market broke through resistance and took this one with it. The trend most people are focused on is very very short term and think higher highs are in place. Not me, I think most have missed this much longer trend line that that the stock is not going to break through ( I hope ). It is one last stitch effort by BULLS and I look for earnings this week to have the same forecast as three months ago. Click on any picture to make it bigger.


For some long idea's over earnings;


NDAQ- I bought calls two days ago when the stock broke above 30 after an extended consolidation period. It had HIGH volume but then the whole market sold off and took it with it. That was when I placed my order, yes prior to the technical break out! It was a gut feeling that it was going to happen. This is great earnings play.





BTU-- Coal is one fire. After a year long down trend, the stock broke out of a nice symmetrical triangle on HIGH volume. Options are cheap and the target on this in the high 60's. Give yourself plenty of time, look at late fall or winter options.








For some more long ideas;
CAH
CVH
ACH
WYNN - last week I was looking at it for a short but it broke out. Watch and see.






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