TIME

It's Flying!

Well time has been going by fast, especially when you are on vacation or just away.

I have just completed my whirlwind hunting trip that took me through Arizona to New Mexico. Then through Colorado and Utah to Wyoming. Then to Idaho. After I found success in what I was hunting, I headed back home through Nevada to California.

Here is my Buck from Wyoming. Not a big buck but I was not seeing what I was looking for and felt the pressure of TIME. The same kind of pressure that the market puts on me.

I then drove half way across Wyoming to get my Antelope. I don't know that it is always this easy, but an hour into the season and I was blessed with this nice specimen.

Pack up and off to Idaho. This is where the weather got bad for the first time. Although we encountered some snow in Wy, it was a day storm that did not last. Here we had some colder weather for several days and the snow stuck at the higher elevations.

My hunting partner got me on a bachelor herd of bucks and after watching for several hours, I ended up harvesting this nice buck.

I believe that this was a nice 4x4 buck earlier in the year. His back fork is broke off. He really is a fine buck with that "old" Mexico look to him. He measures about 27 3/4 wide.

I still have Lynx to go get in Canada and Nevada mule Deer hunt in Dec. I am excited about being on a "roll". I now just need to convert that luck and good fortune into the market.
I bought some ANR contracts for .85 about a month prior to hunt. I bought March 08 and I am pleasantly surprised to see that sometimes if you just give things time and don't fret daily about them, they really work out. They have a value of 5.60, that is like 650%. That seems extreme but I wonder how often that could happen if you buy enough Time and let your winners run.

Timing

Well for the most part my life has become extremely busy just at the wrong time for me to play the downside of the market. I have been way too busy to post. I left on an antelope hunt to Nevada and while driving there, the market dropped 400 points that day. I heard it on the radio but had no phone reception where I was. I really felt like I was missing out but you never know, I could have really messed things up worse than I did.

I had just went long on what I thought were some nice earnings plays, ahhhh... until the bear raid came out and I had no protection. I knew better, so my account getting whacked is my own fault.





It was hot where I was and the market was the least of my worries as I chased Antelope and searched for water the whole trip.



Hard work always pays off. I can not wait to do it again. I have six more hunts planned for this year and hope that by the time I get done, the market will have some rationality to it.


Well for the last week and half I have been moving my office to a home office which should free up the rest of my time to hunt and trade, in that order.

Short Squeeze

I don't post about the indexes to often. I did mention in a past post that I felt the NDX was in a broadening Top pattern and that it was going to break out to the upside. It has and looks very strong. The overall market is holding a higher volatility, measured by the VIX and just felt by everybody in it. The swings are just huge as of late.
Panic Buying is what might have happened in a lot of cases, causing a short squeeze. there could have been a lot of perceived breakouts that will turn into fake outs after some short covering ends. I look forward to seeing some failed patterns this week that could turn into panic selling.



Well to follow up on a few stocks form last post. I mentioned this was against resistance and I am mad that I was too chicken to take a position. 20 point drop in 2 days.

CTSH was stronger than I guessed as I had sold my call a little early. It really has taken no breather and I could not be more disappointed in myself for selling out of my position so fast. I guess 90 looks good for a target and any price in the low 84's looks good for an entry.
POT - another favorite of mine. I bought some contracts 2 days ago when it was just below support. Earnings are around the corner.
I took a big speculative stake in NBR on Friday. I think the stock has great fundamentals. There was a nice surge in volume and I am banking on my entry and earnings next week. Depending on your time frame, you could make an argument that this stock is going down, up, or sideways. This is purely and earnings play for me.

CROX - I have only played this twice, once for a loss and once for a profit. Both were bullish plays. If I remember right, the loss was bigger than the profit :-( On a personal note, I hate the shoes. I think they are just plain ugly, coyote ugly. It did break out last week and seem to come back for a re test. I took a bullish position and we will see if it bounces, I am looking for at least $3 to 50.

PCAR -Another stock that has been kind to me. I played it last earnings and was obviously rewarded very nicely. Since then, the stock has been very range bound trading sideways. I have sold some options and taken advantage of the higher theta and IV, but it clearly broke out, re tested 91 ( my entry ) and has bounced. Earnings are Monday and this is how I am going to start the week. I am not going to be shy about saying I am looking for 98 to 100.

CAH is still forming what looks like a nice H&S pattern. I think the break of support is coming and I loaded up on some PUTs, maybe a little over all profit taking in the market will send this down.

Still not a lot of bearish plays that I am looking at, stopped out of ASFI, I played CAL for a quick gain last week. My BNI is do or die this coming week. I will try to get a better list later this week of some stocks that might produce failed patterns.

MIA but I am back

Yes, I have not been posting, but I don't think anybody missed me. My computer has been in the shop and that has been a real downer. I have an HP laptop and I am in love with this thing but an undisclosed member of my family had an accident.... and anyway, we had to send it back to HP for some warranty work. I might add that I was most impressed with the warranty department at HP.

So the market has been in the same unpredictable stage as when I last posted. The NASDAQ has however broke out to the upside, keeping a trend of higher highs in tact. The DOW has started a sideways move. Everybody wants to know what the market is going do. It's probably going to go up until it goes down! That was a safe statement.

Having a background in the Mortgage industry, I find the mortgage and real estate stocks interesting. Home builder stocks are making a move lower and there could be a lot of good bear call spreads and shorts in that sector.

One stock that I like long is Fannie Mae. FNM is the largest "A" paper investor, their loans require mortgage insurance and you can see by this chart, they have broken out of a gigantic wedge. Price Target? 90 to 100. No, not next month, buy the stock and hold it or look at some Jan 08 options. There is a reason the stock price is going up while other mortgage lenders are shutting their doors.


FUL - They broke out of this channel on earnings and I entered into a long position on Friday. Low risk as support is right there. I have a short term target of 32-33, it is just a couple of dollars but that would be 10% move. Not too bad.

BG - You have what looks like a "W" pattern followed by a few months of a descending channel. It broke out of that downtrend with some nice volume and I am looking for higher highs going into earnings. If it does pull back, I would gobble up a boat load at the 82.50 mark.

ADSK - I would like to think of an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern as being at the bottom of a down trend and signalling a reversal so... maybe this not one. It has been trading in more of a sideways range for the last two years giving swing traders lots of opportunity and most likely disappointing investors. Looked like a great entry on Friday and I am in!

LLL - looks like a nice up trend and the industry has had some momentum. 5 more points seems easy enough.

LPNT - Another big wedge. I got in last month right at the re test and was stopped out when it broke beneath 39 for a losing trade. I am back in and like the potential run into earnings.
GROW - you could view this as bearish or bullish. I like the volume spikes on the up days and have a long position with a tight stop. I see this just bouncing off support AND I see this right at resistance.

CTSH - this has been in trading range for the last two months after a nice sell off. I took a long position Thursday at the close and was rewarded very nicely on Friday. I can not say that I stuck with the whole move as I exited a little too early, but I will be watching this closely.
ASFI - My only notable bearish play is shorting this stock at $40. There is a little room for it to move up but looks like a loser to me.
CLF is still moving up not really showing any weakness. I like the volume.
SHLD - always a favorite chart of mine. I just love this stock and it has treated me well. My most recent trade was a loser as I did not expect it to break 175. It had a big day on average volume and you can see it is right at Resistance. Have to watch and see.

I am about 5 to 1 bullish trades over bearish and looking for things to keep climbing. Earnings are here and that should give some idea of direction as always.

Ups and Downs

It was a good week for the bears on Monday and Tuesday but then the Bulls took everything back to end the week with some really good strength. The NASDAQ is making new highs and most of the stocks I follow that are bullish, pushed higher.
There are still some weak sectors and nice weak charts inside those sectors but I thought I would just review the earlier charts posted.

DO exploded higher and although there is no reason to exit if you have longer term goals, I took profits and ran. What a beautiful break out, re test, and strong bounce

GRMN also exploded out of its bull flag. The pattern suggests a price target of 73 -74. Its always nice to these patterns hold up. Look for another flag to form before we get there.

CEG is still well within its pattern of lower highs and lower lows but I was most disappointed with it breaking the neckline. Only because thats when I entered my bearish position. Lets see what next week brings.

CAH is forming the right shoulder in perfectly. The last three days the market has pushed higher by 400 points and you can see volume has picked up as Cardinal has pushed lower.

A nice long just breaking out is CLF. A lot of volume behind the move. X is starting to bounce and selling puts might be the best way to take advantage of the high implied volatility.

GILD is looking like a nice short. look for a maybe a 10 point move.

Gearing Up

There have been lots of great trades out there. But when isn't there? If you are open to both sides of the market, there is always something to trade. Which just confirms that being gone on vacation or just away is no big deal. There is always another trade, that is what makes this business the best. So I am gearing up for the summer and re vamping the watch list.

CEG is looking very weak as it retests it's support line that was broke last week.

CAH - like always I am jumping the gun but I bought 6 months of time for like $2. When time is cheap, if you can afford it, it can really pay off. Fundamentally this stock is not a buy so why not look at some Puts.

DO - Nice stock, with a very nice chart. Just breaking out making new highs and now re testing. Good bullish stock.

GRMN - Just broke out of a year long wedge and bull flagged down. Great company with a great product, this is a good buy signal.

I am long ACI, BIDU, FCX. PCU, GRMN, DO

Still short KMX, SHLD, CAH, CEG

I have been in watch and see mode and the market has been so volatile I have not been able to catch the swings. Be careful out there.

Dog-a-thon

I have not posted in while. There is the obvious reason that I am most likely busy. That is true but there is also another reason: Losing Streak. Everything I have touched has turned to junk. Paralyzed by my human-ness, I was unable to turn that junk into gold.
AXE, TIE, DRIV, WOOF, the list goes on that is not posted.
So then you try to shake it off and get back in and it even gets worse as you try to "make up" lost ground. Not gonna happen.

Okay, the market is acting a little suspicious with all these one day pullbacks. Not normal over the long run. Despite an indifferent market, there are lots of bullish and thank goodness, bearish trades.



PCU looks like a great entry.

OMG looks bullish to me

Carmax looks like there is plenty of room for fall. The only question is how long will it take.

There are so many real estate companies that are falling like rocks, AVB is just one that put some quick cash in my account. A great entry could be had right now.

There are so many I just don't have the energy to get all the charts up.

Long -anr, cdwc, do, grp, mlm, omg, pcar, pcu, pot, wcg, x.

Short -hni, kim, infy, kmx

Prophet

I was in church this past weekend and the Pastor was talking about the role of Saints, Disciples, Pastors, Teachers, Prophets and the such. He went on to say that the Prophet would predict the future. It was interesting to say the least, you would have had to been there. I started thinking about how I use Prophet to make a living. Am I a Prophet? Not like my Pastor was talking about, that's for sure.
Learning how to chart really well will give you an edge on predicting future price action. It would appear that this learning process goes on forever. I have not seen a better charting system than Prophet Charts along with the great book by the founder, Tim Knight. Both will empower you to profit from the market.

This past week has been busier than most for me. I have started some Posts but wasn't able to get them completed. So I will include some charts that are few days old and some new ones.

WCG - This was an excellent set up mentioned a week ago. As always, click on any chart to enlarge.

ICE - experiment strangle turned out to be a big hit. Well over a 100% return on investment.

CRR - mentioned as a short idea turned out to be a great idea. A break any further and it could fall fast, as there is a lack of support until 39ish.

CMGI - If you took this trade prior to the breakout, you would be up 15%. Not too bad in just a week. Earnings are in the first week of June and if we can get past 2.50, $3 might come fast.

DRIV - Thought I would have had my bounce by now. Still in the trade and waiting. The doji on Friday is a sign of indecision. It is either ready to continue the recent uptrend or investors have changed their mind about this one.

JEF - A favorite of mine recently has just started to breakout of the flag on Friday. I loaded up on Thursday and believe we will make it to 34 which was the original target.

MEOH - Another good play has been consolidating and ready to make a run to 27 plus. A great stock.

WOOF - Can't say I follow this one but looks like a flag to me. Not a tough trade as support is close by.

HOG - Been following all year long and I took a trade a few days ago and this is the chart of a perfect entry. Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, plus higher highs and higher lows, the most basic concept of a trend.

This is where it ended on Friday. Sorry I did not get my post up mid week.

TIE - Has fallen off most peoples radar. I saw this nice re test of its break out on huge volume and loaded up on calls Thursday.

I needed the 'Easy Button' for this one. If only they all worked out this way!!

AXE - a new one on the radar that was passed along to me by my friend, Silvia, is looking like it is ready for 5-7 point move.

FSLR - Sort of a trendy play. In its short trading history, it has proved to be a mover when it breaks out. 12 points is not out of the question at all. 7 is a much more reasonable request.

I will have a much better watch list for Monday. This last week was normal and odd all at the same time. Investors pushed prices up waiting for Fed news and reports in the beginning of the week. Sold on the news and scared a lot of people out ( including me ) and then drove prices back up to close the week out. I would look for next week to be a bullish week, going for new all time highs. The tone on Monday and Tuesday will be interesting.

I really Hate being a Bear and not having enough bearish trades to post. I live for days like Thursday when the market falls hard and I failed miserably. My most disappointing day of the year by far. I missed the whole move making one mistake after another. Have you ever just wanted another chance?

Happy Mothers Day.