Pigs?

When do you take profits? How do you remove the emotions that you are feeling when you have a trade that is going just like you wanted? In an earlier post I had mentioned AH, and was thinking at the time about the fall of 2007 time period. Thursday the stock rocketed up on strong volume and I know many would just cash in. But it looked like it was going to have a strong close and it did. Closing at the high for the day! Doesn't that mean the only thing keeping it from going higher is the Bell ringing?

That's what I thought it meant. It tacked on another 5%. Pigs get slaughtered. That's what they say. So how do you determine when you are a pig and when you are letting your winners run? I chose to hang on and took no profits. I am sure emotions will have me second guessing myself as profit taking comes in, but I think there is a little more buying to come, I like 89.

So this was sort of a "live" test as I did a strangle 4 days prior to earnings. The stock has moved 15 points in the last 3 days and I closed out my Puts for 10 cent loss and the overall trade is up 39%. This is not an example of a good trader, but rather a gambler that put the odds in his favor AND got lucky. I had original been attracted to this trade because of how tight the bollinger bands were, the stock is all the way outside of them right now.

AKAM - A lot of people are watching this one, I don't think the selling is all over and picked up some PUTs on what I hope is just a bear flag. The risk to reward is there.

CRR - not a real liquid stock but that does not make it untradeable. If this rolls over, this would be a great short candidate.

WHQ- nothing can go straight up with out taking a breather. Those two spinning tops with the second one getting smaller could be a signal of a little retracement right around the corner.

WCG - This stock was channeling up real nice and I played a couple times for a nice profit. For no reason at all, it took a huge dump. I have to wonder if this old trend line will hold up and bullish trade could be placed. The risk to reward is defiantly there, a stop is clear, a close below 80 and watch out below.

NDX - I can not say that I have ever traded a broadening top pattern, but I can say that I am about to. I don't know when it is going to break out and a partial retracement is likely first. Just have to watch it every day.

I seem to have more bearish things on the watch list than bullish. That is only natural after having another super bullish week. I think there are a ton of stocks and equities that are showing over bought. Time to tighten up the stops and look out below.

Frustrated

I had a mentally tough day today. I started to update the blog last night and was feeling like every chart I was looking at was giving a buy signal. I only got off a couple of weak orders prior to the close and just failed at getting it done. There were some nice trades to be entered and I just did not pull the trigger.

BVN- I spent some serious time researching this before the bell closed yesterday and was frustrated with the option selection. Poor liquidity and I left the chart thinking I would come back later and make a decision. I should have just bought the stock and moved on.

I already had some options on Peabody and did manage to add to the position on that nice hammer.

ANR - I did get this trade off yesterday and it was kind enough to fill my account with some green.

CG - mentioned here before, stays in the channel like a good boy. I bought on the highlighted area and have been waiting patiently.

RATE - I was dead wrong on this one and I hold a bunch of worthless out of the money PUTs at this point. The last two days candle sticks look like it might have run out of gas, but could be too late for me.

TTI - Stopped out two days ago, got back in today, still think it might move.

RS - Entered this today as it can easily move $5 to $8. The whole stock market looked like "flag city"




IIG - This has been a great low risk trade. If only they were all this easy.

JEF - never closed the position, just riding it to the target.

CMGI- I thought I would throw out a cheapy! Price patterns work on all stocks, this stock use to be like 160 in the dot.com era.

HERO - I sold my options on earnings release but still have the stock, watch it for a flag.

KIM - I got this from Jeff Kohler's Blog as a short idea and was all over it. Hoping that earnings are poor.

RUT - I think this was the most frustrating for me today. I wanted to load up on calls yesterday at the close but just chickened out for no real reason other than fear. bock bock, I laid an egg.
Well, I really hate chasing the breakouts, I like to get in prior to, just my style. Hopefully a small pullback on some of these will give a second chance. Other wise it will be best to wait for better entries on the next run.

Anticipation

The Power of Price Patterns. Sometimes things just happen the way they should and other times you wonder if it will ever work out. I mentioned JEF before and this is a classic example of how great the Bull Flag can be.

IIG - also mentioned before as an inverted H&S is giving yet a third entry signal right now. One could have gotten in on the break of the neckline, the retest a week later, or this flag is looking good right now.

TTI - also mentioned before is moving in the right direction but buyers have not stepped in yet. Maybe earnings will speed things up

XAU - still falling as it should. My Puts just keep increasing in value.

BVN - My number one pick for next week is setting up real nice. The Power of the Flag, will it show its strength again? Getting ready to bounce off old resistance and the 20 dma.

CAL - My PUTs were stopped out for a gain as the stock bounced back up to re test that 40 mark, but I got back on that dog and shorted at 39.90. I closed the position for a fat two day gain as the airline industry got hammered.

My HERO, is shaping up to look like a nice pattern. I can not wait for earnings this next week. Hopefully it does not give back the anticipated gains. The stock is still not inside the bollinger bands and had no respect for the 200 dma, blew right threw it.

ICE - this will be a test. I have never had any luck with straddles/strangles. The stock seems very constricted via the Bollinger bands. It has a history of being volatile all the time and earnings are around the corner. I strangled it at 135/125 two days ago. I need a 10 point move one way or the other to make me happy.

Finally, HP is an earnings play from a great fundamental trader, Tom Malone, who has helped me understand so much when it comes to earnings. Becoming a member of his team will give you a whole different perspective of the market.

I continue to let the Bear in me reek havoc on my mind as I bought PUTs on OEX and DIA and the Q's. I will mention again, trying to pick the top is the most humbling experience and patience is so rewarding for a new trader.

Bull flag set ups are MER, NBR, BVN

Seattle

Trading has many perks and I have found that one of them is traveling. Traveling to different cities for different conferences can be rewarding. Of course I tell my wife that it is a lot of work and the food isn't like her home cooking, and not to mention the crummy hotel accommodations.
Trading has taken me to Michigan, St. Louis, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Sacramento(home) and I am hoping Chicago in August.

PCAR - must I say any more?

I bought PUTs on RYL last Friday as it was looking juicy.


HERO - have been watching this since Easter. Tom Malone turned me on to this one as a possible buy out candidate. I have been intrigued by the huge pick up in volume and the lack of price movement. Look at how constricted the bollinger bands have been for an extended length of time. The Volume picked up and the stock started to move on Monday, so I did a "mixed bag" thing again. Just a hunch at the time as no break out occurred but feeling good (lucky) now.

CG - mentioned the other day gave three more fine entry points before doing its thing. I got in on the highlighted day.

ACI - bought this morning when it was down .20 cents. Got lucky has it took off.

AMR - a classical example why stop losses have to be used. I set mine at yesterdays open price and was triggered for a profit! I still think that this presents a nice shorting opportunity.

I felt blesseed today to have a surprise guest speaker and someone who I admire speak in my class, Tim Knight. He is the chartist of all times. Everybody should get his book.

Who's In Charge?

Da Bulls!

I had to close my IWM and DIA puts for a medium size loss that was just irritating. The irritating part was that I was trying to call a top or anticipate a much needed pull back. Sometimes that makes you look smart, predicting the future accurately based on your analysis of the market, BUT most of the time it reminds you that you are an idiot and you know better than to try and predict market direction.

CG- I entered into a bullish position on this Bull Flag pattern. Some like to wait for the breakout and others( me ) like to anticipate the breakout with a tighter stop. I like to go in small and add to the position as it develops.

IIG - I had bought some stock a couple days ago on the re test of support looking like it was going to hold, looks like it did today.

AMR - Well if CAL is just the best looking thing ( my PUTs are up 30% ) then look at its partner, AMR. The stock also sold off on earnings news and headed straight for the FIB retracement line and diagonal support. Is there more selling to come? Keep an eye on this one, A very good short candidate.

This is at a perfect point where risk to reward is at its lowest point TTI. A stop is clear.

I had an order in and did not get filled, I should have chased it a little. This is a great pattern and a take over candidate. Nice volume.



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SWEET!!

Ah, this looks like victory...sort of.
Yesterday I said that I got stopped out and that is true on my in the money contracts. I would kill for my in the money puts right now, rules suck sometimes.
If only the stock would not have run yesterday, if only.....

JEF - I entered into a long position on this one and hopefully it does well. I bought some July OTM Calls and some stock, sort of a mixed bag!


This is a beauty from Mr. Knight and I only wish I had entered the trade yesterday.

My account is still headed south and I am trying hard to fill it with things that might keep me at a break even for the week.

Went long on:

CME

BJS

ACH

JOYG- Added to position

SOLF- Added more stock to the position

Went short;

DIA

IWM

If you wake up at 4:30 am PST and think about checking on the futures, you might have a problem or be over positioned!